Almost everybody has heard the philosopher Santayana quoted, in one version or another, to the effect that those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. While indeterminate time lines and the inexactness of comparative circumstances leave plenty of wiggle room for exceptions, there are abundant examples of history-changing mistakes which could have been avoided by paying attention to precedents.
Hitler, of course, knew about Napoleon’s defeat in the Russian winter of 1812, but believed he could succeed where the other had failed. Otherwise rational investors pour fortunes into bubbles, knowing that all previous ones have burst sooner or later. Tyrants oppress until their victims are driven to revolution. What are some of the historical precedents which should concern us today?
The Decay of Empires
Let’s start with the future of the United States of America, the still unmatched one and only military and economic superpower. Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson and a host of lesser academic and journalistic lights have examined the USA in the light of the rise and fall of empires going back to Rome and found disturbing similarities in terms of overextension, underfinancing, and social imbalance. Is the current economic setback, particularly the persistent unemployment and reduced prospects for the younger generation, evidence of the rot that did in other empires? Does the spectacular rise of China show us our anointed successor?
Homeland Security and Terrorism
Let’s take a look at national and homeland security. Despite substantial nuclear disarmament, thousands of warheads exist in the US and Russia. There are smaller stocks in places like France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea, while Iran and who knows who else are striving to build their own. Most of the past demonstrates that once weapons have been developed, from crossbows to poison gas to atomic bombs, someone finds it irresistible to use them. The fact that the gas employed frequently in World War I has scarcely been used since offers a possible happy exception, but it may have been because military authorities concluded that it could result in more harm to the user than it was worth. Certainly Saddam Hussein’s gassing of the Iraqi Kurds, the sarin attack on Tokyo subways by a terrorist group, and reported efforts by terrorists to obtain nuclear devices on the black market demonstrate that weapons of mass destruction remain a threat.
Our Precious Environment
Then there’s the environment. We are told that most scientists agree that our atmosphere is warming and that human actions are responsible. Since the problem seems to stem from carbon emissions proliferating since the Industrial Revolution, we can’t go very far back in history for precedents. But we’ve got enough evidence of polluted air and water and sickened miners’ lungs to suggest that our economic imperatives take precedence over public health. Then again, there are purely natural threats to the environment. Forget global warming. Ice ages seem to recur regularly. Some scientists estimate, based on the earth’s track record, that we’re close to the end of the current interlude between freezes. Will we know when the next one is coming and what to do about it?
Worry, of course, is not a policy. But it’s the first step toward formulating one.
David Hornestay - DavidH began a career as a freelancer after 34 years in government management. Keeping a hand in as a consultant in federal human ...
